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Informatics Institute faculty members Prof. Dr. Ertuğrul Karaçuha, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Vasil Tabatadze and their students Nisa Özge Önal, Esra Ergün, and Kamil Karaçuha coauthored article titled 'Modeling and Prediction of the Covid-19 Cases With Deep Assessment Methodology and Fractional Calculus' was published in the 'IEEE Access' on 2020/9/4.

Abstract:
This study focuses on modeling, prediction, and analysis of confirmed, recovered, and death cases of COVID-19 by using Fractional Calculus in comparison with other models for eight countries including China, France, Italy, Spain, Turkey, the UK, and the US. First, the dataset is modeled using our previously proposed approach Deep Assessment Methodology, next, one step prediction of the future is made using two methods: Deep Assessment Methodology and Long Short-Term Memory. Later, a Gaussian prediction model is proposed to predict the short-term (30 Days) future of the pandemic, and prediction performance is evaluated. The proposed Gaussian model is compared to a time-dependent susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Lastly, an analysis of understanding the effect of history is made on memory vectors using wavelet-based denoising and correlation coefficients. Results prove that Deep Assessment Methodology successfully models the dataset with 0.6671%, 0.6957%, and 0.5756% average errors for confirmed, recovered, and death cases, respectively. We found that using the proposed Gaussian approach underestimates the trend of the pandemic and the fastest increase is observed in the US while the slowest is observed in China and Spain. Analysis of the past showed that, for all countries except Turkey, the current time instant is mainly dependent on the past two weeks where countries like Germany, Italy, and the UK have a shorter average incubation period when compared to the US and France.

Date 23 Sep 2020

İTÜ Informatics Institute

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ITU Informatics Institute provides graduate-level education and research in applied informatics, computer sciences, computational science and engineering, communication systems under the following programs.

Faculty members and students conduct research supported by national and international organızatıons in the fields of electromagnetic fields, communication systems/regulations, computational materials design, computational chemistry/biology, cryptography, signal/data processing/visualization, big data management, climate and ocean sciences, 

  • List of Most Influential Scientists; Associate Professor. B. Uğur Töreyin (article by Dr. John PA Ioannidis, K. W. Boyack and J. Baas published in the journal PLOS Biology)
  • Beltus Nkwawir Wiysobunri, the best project award in the Science category, in the 2020 International Students Project Competition
  • Argenit company, of which Dr. Abdulkerim Çapar is among the founding partners, received the "National-International Supports" First Prize of ITU ARI Teknokent.
  • TÜBİTAK 2242 University Students Project Competition in Priority Areas: Istanbul region first place - Ahmet Burak Özyurt
  • Best Presentation Award at ICAT'18 Conference: Sena Efsun Cebeci, 2018
  • Tubitak Incentive Award; 2016 Assoc. Prof. Adem Tekin
  • “Technical Paper” and “Willis H. Carrier” Award by the American Heating, Cooling and Air Conditioning Association; 2016 Assist. Prof. Dr. H. Salih Erden
  • Science Heroes Association Young Scientist of the Year Award; 2016 Assoc. B. Uğur Töreyin Best Poster Award at PRACEdays 2016 conference; Samet Demir
  • ITU Most Successful Thesis Award; 2016 Hatice Gokcan

There is also a High Performance Computing Laboratory established with the support of the State Planning Organization within the Institute.

Informatics Institute - Telephone +90 (212) 285 71 94

Informatics Institute - Fax +90 (212) 285 70 73

Informatics Institute- Address ITU Ayazaga Campus, 34469, Maslak/Istanbul

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